FoodNews Market Report 25-09

Issue September 2025

"Encounter is the beginning of every change."

- Proverb -

Anyone reading the latest DEHOGA figures these weeks will clearly feel the industry's worries. In July 2025, sales in the hospitality industry fell by around nine percent - a bitter blow when we would all have liked to see a summer revival. Many businesses are struggling with rising costs and many guests are now thinking more carefully about what they spend their money on. This has cast a noticeable shadow over an industry that actually wants to give us pleasure and enjoyment.

And yet, despite all the difficulties, gastronomy remains indispensable. It is far more than the sum of food and beverages. It is a place where people come together, laugh, talk, celebrate - in short: share life. Restaurants, small pubs, canteens and cafeterias are at the heart of our society.

This is exactly where we at Paul M. Müller come in. We deliberately have a broad base and think not only about traditional gastronomy, but also about communal catering. What counts in both areas is that good food remains affordable - and this is precisely where our strength lies. With our clear profile in the price-conscious segment, we score points with pizza, pasta and the like - with our large selection of vegetables, fruit, pulses and delicatessen products. These are products that people like, that can be calculated economically and that enable enjoyment even in challenging times.

Just as people come together in restaurants and canteens across the country, the same will happen at Anuga. Our team is very much looking forward to it, as it gives us the opportunity to have real face-to-face discussions with customers, suppliers and partners - encounters that are more effective than any digital contact. We are particularly pleased that colleagues from the Netherlands and Austria will be joining our German team at the stand this year. Not only does this make us more international, but also more diverse - a clear signal that we are ready for the future.

Of course, the markets remain difficult and no one knows what challenges the coming months will bring. But our approach is clear: reliable quality, fair prices and a team that is passionate about what they do. A good example is our new colleague Christina Metzger, who has joined our purchasing team following the departure of Eve-Florence Gölz. She brings fresh impetus and will meet many of you personally at Anuga.

My conclusion? Yes, times are challenging. But we remain confident because we know that we can find ways forward together with our partners. And because we are convinced that, in the end, it's not just pure numbers that count, but the personal encounters - they strengthen our industry and make it strong in the long term.

Sincerely,
Yours sincerely, Thomas Schneidawind

Tomatoes:

Yields significantly lower in Southern Europe

The tomato harvest in southern Europe is significantly weaker than expected this year. In Italy, around 60 percent of production had been completed by the end of August, with around 40 percent still pending. At an average of 65 to 70 tons per hectare, the yield in the fields is around 10 to 15 percent below the usual values.

Initial projections indicate between 2.9 and a maximum of 3 million tons for northern Italy and between 2.3 and 2.5 million tons for southern Italy. Overall, Italian production is likely to be around 5.2 million tons - significantly less than the 5.8 to 5.9 million tons originally expected. The situation is particularly tense for organic tomatoes: Here, the losses are estimated at 25 to 30 percent. Many existing sales contracts are unlikely to be fulfilled. This means that organic tomatoes are in short supply for the third year in a row.

There are currently difficulties, particularly in Apulia: Only small quantities are reaching the factories, and at very high raw material prices. As a result, the programs cannot be completed as planned, which is driving up production costs considerably. The situation is somewhat better in the north, but here too the low yield per hectare - especially for organic products - is confirmed.

A similar trend can also be seen in Spain. Instead of the predicted 2.7 to 2.8 million tons, only 2.3 to 2.4 million tons are expected. The harvest is expected to continue until September 25 to 27, or even longer if the rain continues. However, this is considered problematic: the fruit can not be harvested or can only be harvested with a delay and the factories come to a standstill.

The situation in Portugal looks somewhat better. Here, yields are roughly in line with expectations. Of the 1.4 million tons originally forecast, 1.3 to 1.35 million are now expected. As the Portuguese started very late (between August 10 and 15), more than 60 percent of the harvest still has to be brought in in September. Although the fields look good, rain could also severely disrupt the process here.

And in Turkey? The harvest is lower than the average of previous years. The price of fresh tomatoes is quite high and is at the same level as in the EU, which makes it difficult for Turkish producers to sell tomato products to the EU. The factories are running slowly and are only using 50 to 60 percent of their capacity. Demand is weak. It was already clear at the beginning of the year that the harvest would be significantly lower - in some regions even up to 40 percent below the previous year. Later plantings were unable to compensate for the shortfall. AMITOM officially expects 2.2 million tons, some sources expect even less. Heatwaves have concentrated the harvest, meaning that the season in the main region of Bursa will end around September 20. In Konya, processing will continue until mid-October, but also with lower volumes. Overall, the quality of the raw materials is considered good to average.

For the market, this means that things will remain quiet for the time being. Contracts are being concluded only hesitantly as buyers and sellers await further developments.

A final look at China: tomato production there will also end in around ten days. The final volume in barrels is likely to be less than 0.55 million tons - after 1.6 million tons in the previous year and an expectation of 0.6 million tons at the start of the season. This means that the harvest will fall well short of forecasts.

Anchovies:

Price increase expected

As in previous months, the situation on the anchovy market remains tense. The current catch volumes are well below the usual level, which is why market observers are anticipating rising original prices. However, thanks to our forward-looking planning, we at Paul M. Müller are well prepared and can continue to supply our customers reliably. Please note that anchovies require refrigeration, even in the fall and winter. For this reason, deliveries are only made by refrigerated vehicles. You can find the corresponding information sheet here. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us at any time.

Peppers and hot peppers:

Between price pressure and harvest problems

In Turkey, paprika remains a stable product that is harvested several times over a longer period of time. Nevertheless, prices are currently above the previous year's level. Although the euro is strong against the weakening Turkish lira, galloping inflation and rising costs - for example for empty cans, wages and energy - are driving up overall expenditure. Things are looking more positive in the fields: The bell pepper plants are proving to be largely heat-resistant and robust.

The situation is tighter for chilli peppers: Faster ripening and burning shortens the harvest period, which causes raw material prices to rise by around 20 to 25 percent. A 5-kilo tin of pepperoni rings recently cost 5.70 to 5.80 euros, and the current price is around 6.40 euros. It remains unclear whether these price increases can be implemented on the market, as Egypt, for example, offers significantly cheaper prices.

In Egypt, however, the pepper market remains tight from a production perspective: High summer temperatures and heavy pest infestation are putting a strain on the harvest. Whiteflies and thrips in particular - tiny fringed winged insects that damage flowers and fruit - are affecting fruit set, especially in open field cultivation. Added to this are water shortages, rising irrigation costs and salinization of the soil, which impairs quality.

While the jalapeño harvest in Egypt was pleasingly good this season, the cultivation of Lombardi peppers is under particular pressure. Heatwaves and untimely rain led to yield losses, while problems with imported seeds resulted in patchy crops. Many farmers are also switching to higher-margin crops such as tomatoes or cucumbers, meaning that the proportion of lombardy peppers is continuing to fall. This is exacerbated by labor shortages in key regions and rising transport costs.

Domestic demand is growing steadily, while stricter regulations apply to exports: Residue limits for pesticides, complete traceability of goods and complex post-harvest treatments are putting additional pressure on producers. It is not yet clear what impact these developments will have on the availability and prices of chilli peppers from Egypt in the medium term. We will continue to report on the topic in Food News and provide up-to-date assessments.

Peaches and mandarins:

Mixed forecasts

The peach harvest is coming to an end in Greece. There is currently strong competition, particularly for mountain peaches, as many processors still urgently need raw produce. Prices are currently between 35 and 45 cents per kilogram - a challenge for those packers who previously sold their goods at lower prices.

The harvest volume is lower this year, final figures are still pending. The yield is also low in terms of quality: instead of the calculated 18 kilograms of raw material per carton, up to 21 kilograms are required in some cases. This means a 5 to 10 percent higher raw material input, which is clearly reflected in the final price at kilo prices of 35 to 45 cents.

In addition, the demand for canned peaches was lower this season anyway. Although production and sales have balanced each other out as a result, there is a risk of empty warehouses and shelves, if demand picks up again in the coming season.

In Turkey, the price levels for mandarins are expected to emerge in the next three to five weeks. Commodity prices have not yet been finalized, but harvest expectations are good. The first contracts are likely to be negotiated at Anuga. Our expert says: "The aim is to achieve a reasonable calculation - because if you go too high too soon, you risk losses." Due to punitive tariffs in China, Turkey remains an attractive supplier country.

"The market remains volatile. It will not work in the future without strong partnerships"

- Olaf Böhm

Olaf Böhm advises companies along global supply chains. In an interview with Paul M. Müller, he explains why geopolitical crises, strict EU regulations and a shortage of skilled workers are putting the industry under pressure - and how digitalization and co-investment are becoming a question of survival.

Mr. Böhm, your professional career has taken you halfway around the world. What were the stations that had a particular impact on you?
After training as a forwarding agent, I was drawn abroad early on - first to England, then to Hong Kong and Korea. During this time, I mainly worked in the air and sea freight sector. I later returned to Germany via Italy, where I worked for many years as Managing Director of a logistics company. Today I am an independent consultant - with the aim of passing on my experience and supporting companies in the logistics sector.

What is the current situation on the sea freight market: is calm returning or will it remain turbulent?
It is currently more stable than immediately after the pandemic, but there can be no talk of real calm. Political tensions, trade conflicts and new regulations continue to cause major fluctuations. Due to the attacks on merchant ships by Houthi rebels, many shipping companies are avoiding passage through the Suez Canal. The ships are being rerouted via South Africa. This extends transportation times, which is a major challenge, especially for perishable goods such as food. It also drives up costs.

Can you give us specific figures?
Before the crisis, the Red Sea handled around 30 percent of global container traffic. At the beginning of 2025, 85 to 90 percent of ships were already bypassing the route through the Red Sea and sailing along the Cape of Good Hope instead - with up to 20 days longer transit time and around USD 1 million in additional fuel costs per trip.

Uncertainty is also coming from the USA at the moment. Can you feel this in the market?
Absolutely. Many decisions are completely unpredictable, especially under Donald Trump. Tariffs of up to 70 percent are imposed virtually overnight - the goods are often already on their way. And if the framework conditions change in the middle of the water, containers have to be turned back or rerouted. This is not only logistically complex, but also extremely expensive - especially if the affected container is at the bottom of the stack and all the others have to be lifted down first.

How predictable are international supply chains at the moment?
Supply chains are more predictable than during the pandemic, but we are still a long way from real stability. Flexibility, real-time transparency and alternative route planning are key requirements in supply chain management today. Companies that rely on close-knit digital monitoring can react faster and manage risks better. Port logistics in particular make it very difficult to plan the supply chain. There are major capacity bottlenecks in hinterland connections. There is a lack of drivers as well as special equipment such as gensets*. The outflow by rail is also regularly negatively affected by track disruptions or rail construction work.

Have prices stabilized in the meantime?
Not really - there are still significant fluctuations, especially on Asia-Europe routes. Political tensions, for example in the Middle East or Ukraine, have an impact, as do new regulations, seasonal effects, capacity bottlenecks, the behavior of large shipping companies, strikes, as recently seen in northern European ports, and the CO₂ levy. Added to this are rising costs due to technical requirements - for example, the use of lower-emission fuels. The changeover is expensive and in many cases hardly economically feasible. Just one figure: Before the pandemic, the container price from Shanghai to the northern European main ports, for example, averaged USD 1,400 per 20-foot standard container (TEU). Today, it is around 20 percent higher.

How interested are your customers in climate-friendly or CO₂-neutral logistics?
Sustainability is becoming massively more important and the pressure is growing noticeably: customers are demanding CO₂ information in their offers and sustainability is becoming a competitive factor. Freight tenders are no longer judged solely on the lowest prices for the best service, but also on the lowest emissions. But as soon as it comes to money, the reality becomes apparent - if the green provider is more expensive, the cheaper option is often chosen anyway. In the end, it's the price that counts for many, not the environmental footprint. One major problem is customer loyalty: Many are demanding green fleets with LNG propulsion - but when gas prices exploded during the energy crisis, hardly anyone was prepared to bear the additional costs. Many haulage companies had to park their gas-powered vehicles. Nevertheless, there are promising approaches: In the Netherlands, for example, the first low-emission container ship is in operation - financed jointly by the freight forwarder and the customer. It will not work without such partnerships in the future.

Do you see any further progress in alternative drives?
Yes, especially with LNG drives. The use of methanol and the first concepts for hydrogen-based drives are gaining in importance. The inland port operator Moerdijk Container Terminal (NL) has inland vessels with electric drives in circulation for its barge route to Rotterdam. Wind power is also being discussed again as a complementary technology, for example in the form of rotor sails. However, many of these technologies are still in their infancy or are limited to certain ship classes.

What role does digitalization play in the industry?
A central one. Without digital processes, the industry would collapse today. Track & trace, automated processes, digital interfaces - this is the only way to cope with the immense volume despite the lack of personnel. Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement, for example in the end-to-end integration of customs and document processes. Ports such as Rotterdam and Antwerp have a very efficient digital platform that enables efficient planning of port and hinterland logistics.

How do you assess the future viability of the Port of Hamburg?
Hamburg remains a central hub, but the challenges are great. The hinterland connection is patchy, and waiting times of 40 to 60 hours are not uncommon. Although Hamburg has caught up in terms of digitalization, it still lags behind Rotterdam and Antwerp. This impacts on costs and increases the pressure in international competition.

Can Wilhelmshaven be an alternative?
The potential is there, but the reality is lagging behind. There is a lack of infrastructure and connections. If the port had been located closer to the major economic centers, more would have been possible. As it is, Wilhelmshaven remains a complementary location, but not a serious replacement for Hamburg, Rotterdam or Antwerp.

What do you see as the most pressing problems in the industry?
Clearly: the shortage of skilled workers. In regions such as Munich or Stuttgart, it is almost impossible to find sufficiently qualified staff. At the same time, regulatory complexity is increasing - for example due to the so-called "Kassel Act". This refers to stricter EU rules on cabotage*. In my opinion, we need to change or abolish cabotage regulations and finally allow transport companies from the Baltic or south-eastern European countries to operate freely in Hamburg, Antwerp or Rotterdam. In the past, foreign drivers could take on several transports within Germany. Today, a maximum of three journeys in seven days are permitted - after which a break of several days must be taken. This makes planning much more complex and makes transportation noticeably more expensive.

Are there any bright spots, i.e. real showcase projects in the industry?
Yes, but many are still in the pilot phase. There are initial approaches to avoiding empty runs - for example through more intelligent container handling. Alternative drive systems in inland shipping are also making progress. But one thing is clear: without customers who join in and invest, much will remain piecemeal. Service providers cannot manage the transformation on their own.

*Gensets = Abbreviation for generator set - i.e. an engine that drives a generator and provides power for refrigerated containers during transportation, for example, if no external power source is available.

**Cabotage = transportation of goods within a country by foreign transport companies.

About the person: Olaf Böhm
Olaf Böhm is a trained forwarding agent and has almost 35 years of experience in international logistics management. His career has taken him through various European markets - including the UK and Italy - and to Asia, in particular Hong Kong and South Korea, over almost two decades. In 2012, Böhm took over the management of a Munich-based logistics company with a focus on food logistics as part of a succession plan. One year later, he became a partner. During his eleven years in management, he played a key role in the organic expansion of the company from two to eleven locations in eight countries - with sales growth from around 80 to almost 300 million euros. Olaf Böhm sold his shares at the end of 2023. Today, he supports companies as a consultant in strategic growth and transformation processes - with a particular focus on logistics, supply chain management and international markets. His company is based in Aßling near Munich. Further information: www.bo-log-consulting.com

New warehouse location:

Relocation successfully completed

After four intensive weeks in July and August, the move to our new warehouse at TST b2b GmbH in Neu Wulmstorf has been successfully completed. A total of around 6,000 pallets with a total weight of around 4,700 tons were transported from the old warehouse to the new location in around 200 truckloads. All customers have already been informed of the new warehouse location by e-mail. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Fruit of the Month:

Christina Metzger

Christina Metzger is taking over from Eve-Florence Gölz in Purchasing and Sales at Paul M. Müller with a fresh perspective and a passion for food. She brings many years in the industry with her - and a great enthusiasm for good products. In this interview, she reveals why food is much more than just a commodity for her and what she is particularly looking forward to at Paul M. Müller.

PMM: Christina, you recently joined the team at Paul M. Müller. What attracted you to the food industry so much that you have remained loyal to it since you were 16?

Christina Metzger: For me, food is simply an emotional product. I enjoy eating, I cook a lot and I'm also involved with it in my private life - that makes all the difference for me. If I were to buy screws, I would certainly be able to do it professionally, but there would be less passion involved. For me, food involves enthusiasm and a good deal of emotion.

PMM: Tell us a little about your career path.

Christina Metzger: I trained as a pastry chef and cook, which gave me an early start in the industry. Later, I continued my commercial training and worked in purchasing for many years. This combination of practical experience and commercial know-how helps me enormously today.

PMM: What exactly are you doing at Paul M. Müller now?

Christina Metzger: I work in purchasing and sales - in other words, I procure products and also sell them on. The sales part is new to me, but very exciting. Thanks to my experience, I can categorize the products well. For example, when I read "canned tomatoes", I immediately have ideas about how to use them. I always think along with them: How do our customers use this product? What can they do with it in the kitchen? This connection between product and application is particularly important to me.

PMM: What ultimately led you to Paul M. Müller?

Christina Metzger: I was previously at Münchner Suppenküche and was already in contact with Paul M. Müller back then. I have very positive memories of the company. When I wanted a new direction, I called Fabian Kretschmer - and that's how the new job came about. Everyone in the team supports me. That makes the start really easy and pleasant.

PMM: What are you particularly looking forward to in the coming months?

Christina Metzger: To all my new tasks - and Anuga! It's exciting for me to get to know our suppliers and customers personally. Networking and personal contacts are extremely important in the food industry - and I'm looking forward to delving even deeper.

Oktoberfest:

Atmosphere at the Wiesn

O'zapft is! The 190th Oktoberfest kicks off on September 20 and ensures a lively atmosphere in Munich until October 5. Of course, as an Upper Bavarian company, the Paul M. Müller team won't miss the opportunity to join in the celebrations! The Wiesn is no longer just about chicken and knuckle of pork - vegetarian and vegan highlights are booming. From cheese spaetzle and spinach dumplings to vegan veal sausage and sauerkraut strudel: around 123,000 vegetarian and 54,000 vegan dishes were served in 2024 - so meat-free is absolutely on trend. We are particularly pleased about this because we also promote this diversity with our range at Paul M. Müller - with plant-based products, high-quality vegetable specialties and delicatessen products. Everything for enjoyment that unites all kinds of taste.

Anuga 2025:

See you in Cologne!

"Sustainable Growth" is the main theme of Anuga 2025 from October 4 to 8 - and we are right in the middle of it: you will find us in Hall 2.1, Stand C019. "Sustainability is no longer a nice-to-have, but a driver for innovation, business models and consumer decisions," said Anuga Director Jan Philipp Hartmann recently in an interview withleadersnet.de. At the largest and most important international trade fair for food & beverage, the focus this year will be on vegan innovations and alternative proteins. From plant-based meat alternatives to new protein sources such as algae or mushrooms, the trade fair will show how nutrition can be reinvented. We will also be bringing our own ideas and products. But above all, we are looking forward to the personal exchange: meeting familiar faces, making new contacts and talking together about the future of the food industry. We look forward to meeting you all in person - at Anuga 2025 in Cologne, in Hall 2.1, Stand C019.

Although we consider the sources we use to be reliable, we accept no liability for the completeness and accuracy of the information provided here.

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